Exit Polling Proves Ted Cruz Is Right

The Super Tuesday I exit polling data were conclusive.

In every state where self-identified evangelical Christians gave U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz even a plurality of their support, he won. His placement in the other states also directly correlated with his ability to win self-described born-again Christians.

Based on the polling data, one could reasonably assume a pastor-driven voter education effort in future states might have a beneficial impact for the Texas senator. But time is running out.

To secure the nomination, Cruz still needs eight state delegate majorities, and he also needs to win nearly 60 percent of the remaining delegates. With all of the other Republican presidential candidates vowing to continue on, his pathway to the nomination becomes very difficult.

But even if evangelicals can’t give Cruz the nomination outright, by turning out, they can extend the contest all the way to the national convention by preventing the other candidates from achieving the necessary delegate counts.

The data below show the popular votes, delegates awarded, and exit polling data for each of the Super Tuesday I states:

Alabama

Donald Trump *     371,715       36 delegates

Ted Cruz                  180,601       13 delegates

Marco Rubio            159,799          1 delegate

Ben Carson                87,516

John Kasich               37,969

Exit Polling—77 percent self-identified as born-again or evangelical Christians. Breakdown of “evangelical vote”: Trump 44 percent, Cruz 22 percent, Rubio 17 percent, Carson 11 percent, Kasich 3 percent

Alaska

Ted Cruz                      7,973       12 delegates

Donald Trump             7,346       11 delegates

Marco Rubio                3,318          5 delegates

Ben Carson                  2,401

John Kasich                     892

No exit polling was conducted in Alaska.

Arkansas

Donald Trump        129,865       16 delegates

Ted Cruz                  121,031       15 delegates

Marco Rubio              99,307          9 delegates

Ben Carson                22,664

John Kasich               14,862

Exit Polling—78 percent self-identified as born-again or evangelical Christians. Breakdown of “evangelical vote”: Cruz 33 percent, Trump 33 percent, Rubio 24 percent, Carson 6 percent, Kasich 2 percent

Georgia

Donald Trump *     500,743       43 delegates

Ted Cruz                  315,514       18 delegates

Marco Rubio            304,629       15 delegates

Ben Carson                80,396

John Kasich               72,193

Exit Polling—69 percent self-identified as born-again or evangelical Christians. Breakdown of “evangelical vote”: Trump 39 percent, Cruz 26 percent, Rubio 23 percent, Carson 6 percent, Kasich 4 percent

Massachusetts

Donald Trump        298,986       21 delegates

John Kasich             110,505          8 delegates

Marco Rubio            109,471          8 delegates

Ted Cruz                    58,376          4 delegates

Ben Carson                15,752          1 delegate

Exit Polling—26 percent self-identified as born-again or evangelical Christians. Breakdown of “evangelical vote”: Trump 49 percent, Rubio 19 percent, Cruz 13 percent, Kasich 10 percent, Carson 7 percent

Minnesota

Marco Rubio              41,073       17 delegates

Ted Cruz                    32,242       13 delegates

Donald Trump          23,650          8 delegates

Ben Carson                  8,084

John Kasich                  6,443

No exit polling was conducted in Minnesota.

Oklahoma

Ted Cruz                  157,941       16 delegates

Donald Trump        130,141       14 delegates

Marco Rubio            119,562       13 delegates

Ben Carson                28,572

John Kasich               16,515

Exit Polling—75 percent self-identified as born-again or evangelical Christians. Breakdown of “evangelical vote”: Cruz 39 percent, Rubio 26 percent, Trump 25 percent, Carson 7 percent, Kasich 2 percent

Tennessee

Donald Trump *     332,702       31 delegates

Ted Cruz                  211,159       14 delegates

Marco Rubio            180,944       10 delegates

Ben Carson                64,846

John Kasich               45,243

Exit Polling—76 percent self-identified as born-again or evangelical Christians. Breakdown of “evangelical vote”: Trump 41 percent, Cruz 27 percent, Rubio 18 percent, Carson 7 percent, Kasich 4 percent

Texas (incomplete)

Ted Cruz               1,238,520

Donald Trump        757,108

Marco Rubio            501,836

John Kasich             120,154

Ben Carson              117,667

Exit Polling—63 percent self-identified as born-again or evangelical Christians. Breakdown of “evangelical vote”: Cruz 50 percent, Trump 26 percent, Rubio 15 percent, Carson 4 percent, Kasich 3 percent

Vermont

Donald Trump          19,897          8 delegates

John Kasich               18,455          8 delegates

Marco Rubio              11,708

Ted Cruz                      5,907

Ben Carson                  2,538

Exit Polling—30 percent self-identified as born-again or evangelical Christians. Breakdown of “evangelical vote”: Trump 26 percent, Rubio 24 percent, Kasich 23 percent, Cruz 16 percent, Carson 9 percent

Virginia

Donald Trump        356,077       17 delegates

Marco Rubio            327,423       16 delegates

Ted Cruz                  173,360          8 delegates

John Kasich               96,677          5 delegates

Ben Carson                60,105          3 delegates

Exit Polling—53 percent self-identified as born-again or evangelical Christians. Breakdown of “evangelical vote”: Trump 36 percent, Rubio 28 percent, Cruz 20 percent, Carson 8 percent, Kasich 6 percent

* — signifies the winner received a majority of the delegates; RNC rules require eight state majorities to be eligible for the party’s nomination.