Could This Be What the Electoral College Map Really Looks Like Now?
Have you seen the latest YouTube video that proves, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that Donald Trump will win the Nov. 8 election in an Electoral College landslide?
If not, it doesn’t take much effort to find them—plural—put out by YouTubers who are certain that because WikiLeaks has now proven that “oversampling” is happening in the polls, it means Donald Trump will automatically win almost every state. One goes so far as to suggest the Republican presidential nominee will win by 132 electoral votes, 335-203.
Is it possible? Sure.
But is it plausible? Now that’s a much more difficult question to answer.
To figure that out, you would have to look at each individual poll—for the past week and in every state—and determine its unique oversampling bias. Then you would have to recalculate the averages and apply it to the Electoral College map.
Just to see what a generic “bias factor” of minus-3 would do to the map, we subtracted three points from the Real Clear Politics averages in each state for Hillary Clinton and added three to Donald Trump. The effective six-point swing resulted in something very close to the 339-203 result.
We came up with 299-207 with Colorado, Virginia and Wisconsin each too close to call, but likely to go to Clinton. So it’s easy to see why there’s so much optimism for Trump in the general election than he’s getting credit for from the liberal mainstream media.
Ultimately, the only poll that will matter is the one taken Nov. 8. And for Trump to win that one, the voters need to turn out.
