8 Weeks Out: Here’s What the Polls Say About the Presidential Race
Eight weeks from today, we will likely know who will become the 45th President of the United States in January.
Even with the “oversampling” underway in liberally biased mainstream media polls, it’s clear that it’s too early to predict a winner. But those very same polls, when you look at the bigger picture, tell an entirely different story than the narrative the media has been pushing.
Yes, Hillary Clinton currently leads in the polls nationally by two points, 41.9 to 39.9, but the margin-of-error of those polling averages is 3.2 points. Donald Trump could just as easily be leading by two points based on the data and the pollsters could still claim they “got it right.”
But, the winner of the popular vote doesn’t determine who wins the presidency. Instead, the Electoral College does. And while Clinton currently holds a 242-161 margin, her lead continues to evaporate in a number of key states.
As it stands right now, there are nine “battleground” states—where polling suggests neither candidate has a lead outside of the margin of error. In each of those states, Clinton is currently losing ground to Trump, even with the “oversampling” bias.
Here’s a summary:
Trump Clinton MOE
Arizona (11 Electoral Votes) 41.6% 40.0% ±3.4
Florida (29 Electoral Votes) 43.4% 40.0% ±3.1
Georgia (16 Electoral Votes) 42.6% 42.1% ±3.8
Iowa (6 Electoral Votes) 40.0% 39.0% ±3.9
Nevada (6 Electoral Votes) 41.5% 42.0% ±4.3
North Carolina (15 Electoral Votes) 42.3% 43.0% ±3.9
Ohio (18 Electoral Votes) 40.5% 42.3% ±3.9
Pennsylvania (20 Electoral Votes) 39.8% 45.6% ±4.5
Wisconsin (10 Electoral Votes) 37.3% 41.7% ±4.7
There are several states that could become battleground states between now and Nov. 8. These are Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire and Virginia. Combined, they account for 42 electoral votes.
